Marshalls to Expect Normal Climate Conditions Through 2007
The climate outlook has improved for the Marshall Islands since the three month drought in early 2007. Predicted rainfall for most of the islands will reach between 90 to 100 percent of normal conditions through January 2008. According to the U.S. National Weather Service latest Pacific forecast, residents of the northern RMI, though not in any immediate threat of extreme dry conditions, are urged to take every measure possible to ensure adequate water supplies should dry conditions return in the next dry season (January through April 2008).
The third quarter update of the Pacific El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Applications Center (PEAC) indicated that the level of risk for tropical storm activity through the rest of 2007 is below normal in the RMI, although a remnant of 2 or 3 eastern or central Pacific tropical cyclones may enter the western North Pacific somewhere between Kwajalein and Wake Island.
Several atolls in the northern RMI experienced extremely dry conditions in the first quarter of 2007, and emergency measures had to be taken to insure adequate drinking water for some islands. In January, the capital atoll of Majuro received only 49% of its normal rainfall, while Kwajalein to the north received only 17%.
The El Niņo-related drought in the western North Pacific ended rather abruptly in late March. By April, heavy rain showers fell across most of the area, athough the lack of rain took its toll on agriculture to the north. ENSO's second quarter report stated that the three-month (January - March) total rainfall for some of the atolls in the northern RMI was less than 5 inches.
On March 19, 2007, the RMI government declared a "Severe Drought State of Emergency." Reverse osmosis (RO) units were activated in Majuro. RMI national boats delivered water to Namu, Lib, Likiep and Utrik. The U.S. Army at Kwajalein provided 30,000 gallons to distribute to the hardest hit northern atolls.
Conditions in the region exhibted a ENSO-neutral pattern during the summer months, reported NOAA in August. Average Sea surface temperatures (SSTS) in the equatorial tropical Pacific in the last three months are consistent with ENSO-NEUTRAL condidtion. In the last few weeks of August, the slight decrease in temperatures could point to a progressive La-Nina phenomenon developing during the next couple of months bringing a "cold-Pacific" episode.
-by Aenet Rowa, Yokwe Online, September 2, 2007
